Over the past 24 months, we've been publishing periodic ratings that handicap the nation's gubernatorial races, state attorney general contests and partisan control in the state legislative chambers. Now, before Election Night, we're putting them all together in one final frenzy of ratings that readers can use as a guide to watching the returns.
Over the past few weeks, we've noticed a modest breeze blowing in the direction of the Republicans in some select states. In gubernatorial races, we've decided to shift two states' ratings in the GOP's favor -- New Mexico and Rhode Island. In state AG races, three states are moving into the GOP's camp -- Texas, Utah and Nevada. And in the fight to control the nation's legislatures, we're shifting two states in the Republican direction, the Connecticut Senate and the Nevada General Assembly.
The only race we're shifting towards the Democrats is the New Mexico AG race.
Given that we have been tracking more than 150 races or chambers, that's a pretty strong degree of stability in the electoral picture. This, despite how close this year's gubernatorial races have been. We currently rate no fewer than 18 of the 36 seats being contested as "competitive," meaning they're either tossups or leaning to one party or the other. One additional race -- in Pennsylvania -- is already considered likely to switch parties.
Of these 18 competitive seats, 12 are considered tossups. That's a huge number. In 2010 -- the last cycle with so many governors races contested -- we counted only seven tossup contests. This large number of tossups greatly complicates the job of handicapping for us, due to the methodology we use for our ratings.
For the gubernatorial and AG races, we not only offer a rating, such as tossup or lean Democratic, but also a rank ordering. That is, the list can be viewed as a continuum between the states or races most likely to go Republican (at the top) and the states most likely to go Democratic (at the bottom). The idea is that, once the results are in, we should be able to draw a line somewhere in the middle of the tossup category and divide the seats won by the GOP from the seats won by the Democrats.
For the gubernatorial races, we achieved this result in 2012 and were off by just one contest in 2010. But with 12 tossup races clustering around the middle this year, there's a much higher chance that the middle of our list will end up being jumbled between Republican-won and Democratic-won seats.
Currently, the Republicans hold the lead in governorships: 29 seats to the Democrats' 21. The range of possible Election Day outcomes for gubernatorial races is broad -- a net gain of nine or 10 seats for either party is possible. However, if a strong national wave doesn't materialize and the contests are decided more or less on their own merits, than a net gain of one or two seats for the Democrats seems likeliest.
Similarly, with attorney general contests, it's possible that either party could net up to five seats on Election Day, but without a strong wave, the likeliest outcome would be either no net change or a gain of one seat in either party's direction. Currently, the Democrats hold 26 seats to the Republicans 24. The Democrats' lead in popularly elected AGs is narrower -- 22 seats to 21.
Finally, in the state legislatures, the GOP is poised to pick up three to four chambers, though the outcomes could range from a Democratic gain of one or two to a Republican gain of eight or nine. The current partisan breakdown in state legislatures is 58 Republican-held chambers and 40 Democratic-held chambers.
With that, our latest ratings:
GOVERNORS
Safe Republican
Nevada Gov. Brian Sandoval (R)Tennessee Gov. Bill Haslam (R)
Wyoming Gov. Matt Mead (R)
South Dakota Gov. Dennis Daugaard (R)
Oklahoma Gov. Mary Fallin (R)
Iowa Gov. Terry Branstad (R)
Texas: Open seat; held by Gov. Rick Perry (R)
Ohio Gov. John Kasich (R)
Alabama Gov. Robert Bentley (R)
Idaho Gov. Butch Otter (R)
New Mexico Gov. Susana Martinez (R) (Shift from likely Republican)
Likely Republican
Nebraska: Open seat; held by Gov. Dave Heineman (R)South Carolina Gov. Nikki Haley (R)
Lean Republican
Arkansas: Open seat; held by Gov. Mike Beebe (D)Arizona: Open seat, held by Gov. Jan Brewer (R)
Tossup
Michigan Gov. Rick Snyder (R)Georgia Gov. Nathan Deal (R)
Alaska Gov. Sean Parnell (R)
Massachusetts: Open seat; held by Gov. Deval Patrick (D)
Kansas Gov. Sam Brownback (R)
Wisconsin Gov. Scott Walker (R)
Connecticut Gov. Dannel Malloy (D)
Colorado Gov. John Hickenlooper (D)
Illinois Gov. Pat Quinn (D)
Florida Gov. Rick Scott (R)
Maine Gov. Paul LePage (R)
Rhode Island: Open seat, held by Gov. Lincoln Chafee (D) (Shift from lean Democratic)
Lean Democratic
New Hampshire Gov. Maggie Hassan (D)Maryland: Open seat; held by Gov. Martin O'Malley (D)
Hawaii: open seat, Gov. Neil Abercrombie (D) defeated in primary
Oregon Gov. John Kitzhaber (D)
Likely Democratic
Minnesota Gov. Mark Dayton (D)Pennsylvania Gov. Tom Corbett (R)
Safe Democratic
New York Gov. Andrew Cuomo (D)California Gov. Jerry Brown (D)
Vermont Gov. Peter Shumlin (D)
ATTORNEYS GENERAL
Safe Republican
Oklahoma AG Scott Pruitt (R)South Dakota AG Marty Jackley (R)
North Dakota AG Wayne Stenehjem (R)
Idaho AG Lawrence Wasden (R)
South Carolina AG Alan Wilson (R)
Nebraska: Open seat; held by Jon Bruning (R)
Kansas AG Derek Schmidt (R)
Texas: Open seat; held by Greg Abbott (R) (Shift from likely Republican)
Likely Republican
Alabama AG Luther Strange (R)Ohio AG Mike DeWine (R)
Utah AG Sean Reyes (R) (Shift from lean Republican)
Lean Republican
Colorado: Open seat; held by John Suthers (R)Florida AG Pam Bondi (R)
Georgia AG Sam Olens (R)
Michigan AG Bill Schuette (R)
Tossup
Arkansas: Open seat; held by Dustin McDaniel (D)Arizona: Open seat; held by Tom Horne (R)
Wisconsin: Open seat; held by J.B. Van Hollen (R)
Nevada: Open seat; held by Catherine Cortez Masto (D) (Shift from lean Democratic)
Lean Democratic
New Mexico: Open seat; held by Gary King (D) (Shift from tossup)Rhode Island AG Peter Kilmartin (D)
Likely Democratic
New York AG Eric Schneiderman (D)Iowa AG Tom Miller (D)
Illinois AG Lisa Madigan (D)
Safe Democratic
Massachusetts: Open seat; held by Martha Coakley (D)Minnesota AG Lori Swanson (D)
Maryland: Open seat; held by Doug Gansler (D)
Connecticut AG George Jepsen (D)
Delaware: Open seat; held by Beau Biden (D)
California AG Kamala Harris (D)
Vermont AG Bill Sorrell (D)
STATE LEGISLATURES
Alabama
Senate: Projected safe R; currently R-held
House: Projected safe R; currently R-held
Alaska
Senate: Projected likely R; currently R-held
House: Projected safe R; currently R-held
Arizona
Senate: Projected likely R; currently R-held
House: Projected likely R; currently R-held
Arkansas
Senate: Projected safe R; currently R-held
House: Projected lean R; currently R-held
California
Senate: Projected safe D; currently D-held
Assembly: Projected safe D; currently D-held
Colorado
Senate: Projected tossup; currently D-held
House: Projected lean D; currently D-held
Connecticut
Senate: Projected likely D; currently D-held (Shift from safe Democratic)
House: Projected safe D; currently D-held
Delaware
Senate: Projected safe D; currently D-held
House: Projected safe D; currently D-held
Florida
Senate: Projected safe R; currently R-held
House: Projected safe R; currently R-held
Georgia
Senate: Projected safe R; currently R-held
House: Projected safe R; currently R-held
Hawaii
Senate: Projected safe D; currently D-held
House: Projected safe D; currently D-held
Idaho
Senate: Projected safe R; currently R-held
House: Projected safe R; currently R-held
Illinois
Senate: Projected safe D; currently D-held
House: Projected safe D; currently D-held
Indiana
Senate: Projected safe R; currently R-held
House: Projected safe R; currently R-held
Iowa
Senate: Projected tossup; currently D-held
House: Projected lean R; currently R-held
Kansas
Senate: No races; currently R-held
House: Projected safe R; currently R-held
Kentucky
Senate: Projected safe R; currently R-held
House: Projected tossup; currently D-held
Louisiana
No races, both chambers R-held
Maine
Senate: Projected lean D; currently D-held
House: Projected likely D; currently D-held
Maryland
Senate: Projected safe D; currently D-held
House: Projected safe D; currently D-held
Massachusetts
Senate: Projected safe D; currently D-held
House: Projected safe D; currently D-held
Michigan
Senate: Projected safe R; currently R-held
House: Projected lean R; currently R-held
Minnesota
Senate: No races; currently D-held
House: Projected tossup; currently D-held
Mississippi
No races, both chambers R-held
Missouri
Senate: Projected safe R; currently R-held
House: Projected safe R; currently R-held
Montana
Senate: Projected likely R; currently R-held
House: Projected safe R; currently R-held
Nebraska
Senate: Unicameral/nonpartisan
Nevada
Senate: Projected tossup; currently D-held
Assembly: Projected tossup; currently D-held (shift from Likely Republican)
New Hampshire
Senate: Projected lean R; currently R-held
House: Projected lean R; currently D-held
New Jersey
No races, both chambers D-held
New Mexico
Senate: No race; currently D-held
House: Projected tossup; currently D-held
New York
Senate: Projected rossup; currently R-held
Assembly: Projected safe D; currently D-held
North Carolina
Senate: Projected likely R; currently R-held
House: Projected likely R; currently R-held
North Dakota
Senate: Projected safe R; Ccurrently R-held
House: Projected safe R; currently R-held
Ohio
Senate: Projected safe R; currently R-held
House: Projected safe R; currently R-held
Oklahoma
Senate: Projected safe R; currently R-held
House: Projected safe R; currently R-held
Oregon
Senate: Projected lean D; currently D-held
House: Projected likely D; currently D-held
Pennsylvania
Senate: Projected likely R; currently R-held
House: Projected likely R; currently R-held
Rhode Island
Senate: Projected safe D; currently D-held
House: Projected safe D; currently D-held
South Carolina
Senate: No races; currently R-held
House: Projected Safe R; Currently R-held
South Dakota
Senate: Projected safe R; currently R-held
House: Projected safe R; currently R-held
Tennessee
Senate: Projected safe R; currently R-held
House: Projected safe R; currently R-held
Texas
Senate: Projected safe R; currently R-held
House: Projected safe R; currently R-held
Utah
Senate: Projected safe R; currently R-held
House: Projected safe R; currently R-held
Vermont
Senate: Projected safe D; currently D-held
House: Projected safe D; currently D-held
Virginia
No races, both chambers are R-held
Washington
Senate: Projected lean R; currently R-held
House: Projected likely D; currently D-held
West Virginia
Senate: Projected likely D; currently D-held
House: Projected tossup; currently D-held
Wisconsin
Senate: Projected lean R; currently R-held
Assembly: Projected safe R; currently R-held
Wyoming
Senate: Projected safe R; currently R-held
Assembly: Projected safe R; currently R-held
