Ratings Roundup: 2016 Statewide Elections

Election Day is almost here, and as we've done in past electoral cycles, we're publishing a final frenzy of ratings for all the races handicapped this year.

Readers can use this as a guide to watching the returns -- and as a check on the accuracy of our analyses.

For the Electoral College, gubernatorial and AG contests, we not only offer a rating, such as tossup or lean Democratic, but also a rank ordering. That is, the list can be viewed as a continuum between the states or races most likely to go Republican (at the top) and those most likely to go Democratic (at the bottom). The idea is that, once the results are in, we should be able to draw a line somewhere in the middle of the tossup category and divide the seats won by the GOP from the seats won by the Democrats.

For the Electoral College, we have achieved strong accuracy in past cycles. In 2008, just one state and one of Nebraska's congressional districts were on the wrong side of our dividing line. And in 2012, every state was on the correct side of the line.

Our gubernatorial handicapping has been generally accurate as well. In 2010, we were off by just one contest; in 2012, we were fully correct; and in 2014, our worst performance, we were wrong about four (out of 36) contests.

In 2014, the first cycle we rank-ordered state AG races, our calls were fully accurate. And in the seven state legislative cycles handicapped, we've, on average, mislabeled as noncompetitive one or two chambers that ultimately flipped party control.

ELECTORAL COLLEGE

Our final ratings show 274 electoral votes are likely to go to Hillary Clinton, 186 to Donald Trump and 78 remain in the tossup category. That's a few electoral votes more than Clinton needs to win the presidency without having to win any tossup states.

Since our previous handicapping in October, we've made five shifts between rating categories, plus a handful of moves within a single category. Two of the shifts between categories benefited the Democrats (one congressional district in Maine, which shifted from lean Republican to tossup, and Nevada, which shifts from tossup to lean Democratic) and three benefited the Republicans (New Hampshire moving from lean Democratic to tossup, and Indiana and Missouri moving from lean Republican to likely Republican).

Here's the full breakdown, with new rating shifts in bold:

Safe Republican (86 electoral votes)

Alabama (9), Arkansas (6), Idaho (4), Kansas (6), Kentucky (8), Louisiana (8), Mississippi (6), Montana (3), Nebraska (4 of 5 electoral votes), North Dakota (3), Oklahoma (7), South Dakota (3), Tennessee (11), West Virginia (5) and Wyoming (3)

Likely Republican (71 electoral votes)

Texas (38), Alaska (3), South Carolina (9), Missouri (10; shifts from lean Republican), Indiana (11; shifts from lean Republican)

Lean Republican (29 electoral votes)

Utah (6), Nebraska (1 of 5 electoral votes), Georgia (16), Iowa (6)

Tossup (78 electoral votes)

Ohio (18), Arizona (11), Maine (1 of 4 electoral votes; shifts from lean R), Florida (29), North Carolina (15), New Hampshire (4; shifts from lean Democratic)

Lean Democratic (91 electoral votes)

Nevada (6; shifts from tossup), Colorado (9), Wisconsin (10), Michigan (16), Pennsylvania (20), Maine (2 of 4 electoral votes), Virginia (13), Minnesota (10), New Mexico (5)

Safe Democratic (183 electoral votes)

California (55), Connecticut (7), Delaware (3), District of Columbia (3), Hawaii (4), Illinois (20), Maine (1 of 4 electoral votes), Maryland (10), Massachusetts (11), New Jersey (14), New York (29), Oregon (7), Rhode Island (4), Vermont (3) and Washington state (12)


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GOVERNORS

Currently, Republicans hold a historically large 31-18 lead in governorships. (There's one independent, Alaska's Bill Walker.)

We made only one change since our last handicapping in October, shifting the Missouri gubernatorial from lean Democratic to tossup.

Democratic victories in each of the competitive contests would produce a two-seat gain, reducing the GOP's lead to 29-20. By contrast, a Republican sweep of all competitive seats would result in a six-seat gain and a strikingly dominant overall GOP edge of 37-12.

As usual, the most likely outcome is somewhere in the middle. But regardless of how 2016 shakes out, the GOP will end the year with a continued big lead in governorships.

Here's the rundown, with new rating shifts in bold:

Safe Republican

Utah Gov. Gary Herbert (R)

North Dakota: Open seat (R)

Tossup

Missouri: Open seat (D); shifts from Tossup

Vermont: Open seat (D)

West Virginia: Open seat (D)

Montana Gov. Steve Bullock (D)

New Hampshire: Open seat (D)

North Carolina Gov. Pat McCrory (R)

Indiana: Open seat (R)

Likely Democratic

Washington Gov. Jay Inslee (D)

Safe Democratic

Oregon Gov. Kate Brown (D)

Delaware: Open seat (D)

ATTORNEYS GENERAL

Nationally, the GOP holds 27 AG offices and the Democrats hold 23. If the GOP can run the table of competitive races, its national lead in AG offices would jump to a dominating 30-20. Democrats, by contrast, look likely to have a shot, at best, of making a net gain of one seat. In the absence of a strong national partisan tide, the GOP stands to gain a seat or two.

We've changed the ratings in one race since our last handicapping in September, shifting the West Virginia AG race from lean Republican to tossup.

Here's the full rundown, with new rating shifts in bold:

Safe Republican

Utah AG Sean Reyes (R)

Montana AG Tim Fox (R)

Likely Republican

Indiana: Open seat (R)

Tossup

West Virginia AG Patrick Morrisey (R); shifts from lean R

Missouri: Open seat (D)

North Carolina: Open seat (D)

Lean Democratic

Pennsylvania: Open seat (D)

Safe Democratic

Vermont: Open seat (D)

Oregon: AG Ellen Rosenblum (D)

Washington state: AG Bob Ferguson (D)

LEGISLATURES

Currently, the GOP controls 68 legislative chambers to the Democrats' 30.

We see 26 chambers as competitive -- 18 currently held by Republicans and eight held by Democrats. That's down by one competitive chamber since our last handicapping in October.

Of the 18 chambers held by Republicans, six are rated as tossups, 11 as lean Republican and one as lean Democratic. Of the eight chambers held by Democrats, one is rated lean Republican, two are rated as tossups and five as lean Democratic.

Without a one-sided wave, Democrats could regain control of a half-dozen chambers this cycle. But a larger or smaller number is certainly possible.

Since our last handicapping, we've shifted one chamber towards the Democrats (the New Mexico Senate, from lean Democratic to likely Democratic) and two toward the Republicans (the Kentucky House, from tossup to lean Republican, and the Iowa Senate, from lean Democratic to tossup).

Here's our state-by-state summary, with new rating shifts in bold:

Alabama

Neither chamber is contested this year.

Alaska

Senate: Projected Likely R

House: Projected Likely R

Arizona

Senate: Projected Lean R

House: Projected Lean R

Arkansa

Senate: Projected Safe R

House: Projected Safe R

California

Senate: Projected Safe D

Assembly:Projected Safe D

Colorado

Senate: Projected Tossup

House: Projected Lean D

Connecticut

Senate: Projected Tossup

House: Projected Lean D

Delware

Senate: Projected Safe D

House:Projected Safe D

Florida

Senate: Projected Likely R

House: Projected Likely R

Georgia

Senate: Projected Safe R

House: Projected Safe R

Hawaii

Senate: Projected Safe D

House:Projected Safe D

Idaho

Senate: Projected Safe R

House: Projected Safe R

Illinois

Senate:

House:

Indiana

Senate: Projected Safe R

House: Projected Safe R

Iowa

Senate: Projected Tossup (shift from lean D)

House: Projected Likely R

Kansas

Senate: Projected Likely R

House: Projected Likely R

Kentucky

Senate: Projected Safe R

House: Projected Lean R (shift from Tossup)

Louisiana

Neither chamber is contested this year.

Maine

Senate: Projected Tossup

House: Projected Lean D

Maryland

Neither chamber is contested this year.

Massachusetts

Senate: Projected Safe D

House:Projected Safe D

Michigan

Senate: No Races

House: Projected Lean R

Minnesota

Senate: Projected Lean D

House: Projected Lean R

Mississippi

Neither chamber is contested this year.

Missouri

Senate: Projected Likely R

House: Projected Likely R

Montana

Senate: Projected Safe R

House: Projected Safe R

Nebraska

Nebraska's unicameral legislature is officially nonpartisan; Governing doesn't handicap it.

Nevada

Senate: Projected Tossup

Assembly: Projected Lean D

New Hampshire

Senate: Projected Tossup

House: Projected Lean R

New Jersey

Neither chamber is contested this year.

New Mexico

Senate: (shift from lean D)

House: Projected Tossup

New York

Senate: Projected Tossup

Assembly:Projected Safe D

North Carolina

Senate: Projected Lean R

House: Projected Lean R

North Dakota

Senate: Projected Safe R

House: Projected Safe R

Ohio

Senate: Projected Likely R

House: Projected Likely R

Oklahoma

Senate: Projected Safe R

House: Projected Safe R

Oregon

Senate: Projected Safe D

House:

Pennsylvania

Senate: Projected Likely R

House: Projected Likely R

Rhode Island

Senate: Projected Safe D

House: Projected Safe D

South Carolina

Senate: Projected Safe R

House: Projected Safe R

South Dakota

Senate: Projected Safe R

House: Projected Safe R

Tennessee

Senate: Projected Safe R

House: Projected Safe R

Texas

Senate: Projected Safe R

House: Projected Safe R

Utah

Senate: Projected Safe R

House: Projected Safe R

Vermont

Senate: Projected Safe D

House:Projected Safe D

Virginia

Neither chamber is contested this year.

Washington

Senate: Projected Lean R

House: Projected Lean D

West Virginia

Senate: Projected Lean R

House: Projected Likely R

Wisconsin

Senate: Projected Lean R

Assembly: Projected Lean R

Wyoming

Senate: Projected Safe R

House: Projected Safe R