The governor's plan, which he wants lawmakers to adopt during a special session next month, would leave the state with less money to pay for schools, prisons and other government programs unless the changes he is seeking in corporate taxes also raise substantially more money.
The analysis was incomplete because it did not consider the impact of Landry's proposed changes on the corporate side, with includes measures to both cut and raise corporate taxes.
Greg Albrecht, formerly the Legislature's chief economist, carried out the study for three nonprofit groups in Baton Rouge : the Public Affairs Research Council, the Committee of 100 and the Council for a Better Louisiana.
Landry wants to call legislators into the special session to lower the top individual and corporate tax rates while establishing a flat tax rate, raise the standard deduction for individuals and eliminate the corporate franchise tax.
He would offset those revenue losses by ending many sales tax exemptions, renewing the expiring 0.45-cent sales tax, extending the sales tax to some activities that go untaxed today and eliminating several job incentive programs such as the film tax break that cost taxpayers dearly.
Landry says the massive revamp would simplify Louisiana's tax system and make the state more attractive to residents and investors.
"Every time we see Louisiana's rankings and it is at the bottom, you can bet that the underlying cause is a failing tax system," the governor said at a press conference earlier this month.
Landry is telling state legislators privately that the tax session would take place from Nov. 4-20 or Nov. 6-22.
Legislators have expressed cautious optimism based on what the governor's office has shared so far but want more information.
"I like what the governor's trying to do," said Sen. Alan Seabaugh, R- Shreveport. "But the devil is in the details. If it's done wrong, that will kill us for the next generation."
Albrecht's analysis found that each income category would pay about the same share of taxes under Landry's proposal, with everyone proportionately paying less.
That doesn't sit well with Jan Moller, executive director of Invest in Louisiana, a Baton Rouge -based group.
"We should be looking for ways to make our tax system more progressive and more fair to people with low incomes," Moller said.
Louisiana already has a regressive tax system where people who earn less than $18,000 pay 13.1 percent of their family income in taxes while people who earn over $552,000 pay only a 6.5 percent tax rate, according to the Institute on Taxation and Economic Policy, a progressive nonprofit in Washington, D.C.
Neither the governor's office nor the Legislative Fiscal Office have released studies showing how much each component of the governor's plan would increase or decrease overall tax revenue.
Albrecht's analysis shows that the individual income and sales tax changes would produce a net loss of about $400 million next year.
The Legislative Fiscal Office is usually the arbiter on tax bills, but that office cannot generate any official analysis until legislators actually file bills — and they can't file bills until Landry issues the call for a special session.
"I'm excited about the possibility of trying to fix our tax policy, which is rated so poorly," said Rep. Tony Bacala, R- Prairieville. "But I want to see what the overall impact is on the average taxpayer."
Revenue Secretary Richard Nelson, who is Landry's point person on the tax plan, said his office has conducted an analysis but is waiting for an unofficial one from the Legislative Fiscal Office before releasing its results.
"We think ours makes sense, but we'd like to see another set of eyes," Nelson said Monday as he drove back to Baton Rouge from pitching the plan to a group in Monroe.
He will provide more details when he testifies Thursday before a special hearing of the Senate and Revenue Affairs Committee.
Landry promoted the plan in public appearances earlier this month and has met with groups of legislators. He will meet with the Jefferson Parish delegation on Wednesday, his office said.
What's clear at this point is that Landry likely will need bipartisan support to raise more revenue, especially to renew the 0.45-cent sales tax that was approved in 2018 by then-Democratic Gov. John Bel Edwards and the Republican-controlled Legislature with a June 30, 2025, expiration date.
To pass that and other revenue-raising measures will take at least a two-thirds majority — 70 votes in the House and 26 in the Senate. Republicans hold 73 seats in the House and 27 in the Senate.
Defections are expected among the ultra-conservative House Freedom Caucus, with one member saying that several will not support the renewal.
Sen. Gerald Boudreaux, who represents Lafayette and heads the Democratic caucus in the Senate, said it's too early for Democrats to take a position on the tax plan.
"There are some things people like, and there are some things people don't like," Boudreaux said. "I don't have a consensus."
Rep. Matthew Willard, who represents New Orleans and heads the Democratic caucus in the House, doesn't believe he can support the plan.
"I'm not opposed to overhauling our tax system," Willard said. "But there's not enough time to digest and go through everything."
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