In Brief:
- Republicans have ended Democratic trifectas in Michigan and Minnesota, putting the brakes on progressive bills in those states.
- Republicans also took control of the Pennsylvania House. They did not lose a single chamber, although Democrats may have forced a tie in the Arizona House.
- Republicans have dominated state politics since 2010 and now have full control of 23 states, compared to 15 for Democrats.
Running for vice president raised Tim Walz’s national profile, but now he has to return to his day job as governor of Minnesota. He’s going to find the next two years a lot more frustrating than the last two.
Since Democrats took full control of the Legislature in 2022, Walz has been able to sign any number of progressive bills on issues including abortion and transgender rights, as well as major spending increases for education and transit. But on Tuesday, Republicans won three additional seats in the state House, throwing that chamber into a tie and bringing the governor’s legislative agenda to a screeching halt.
“I would argue that Gov. Walz is dramatically weakened as a governor as a result of this,” says David Schulz, a political scientist at Hamline University in St. Paul. “His star, I think, is dramatically diminished.”
Republicans have dominated legislative politics ever since the 2010 elections, controlling a majority of legislative chambers around the country and, heading into this election, trifectas with both legislative and gubernatorial power in 23 states.
Tuesday’s results did nothing to weaken their longstanding strengths, despite heavy spending from the Democratic Party and allied groups. Democrats went into the election with 17 trifectas but lost two of them.
“With Republicans successfully defending and expanding their majorities in state legislative chambers nationwide, we are well-positioned to advance conservative principles in the states that will impact communities for years to come,” Dee Duncan, president of the Republican State Leadership Committee, said in a statement.
GOP Gains in Swing States
There has been little change in partisan control in legislatures over the past couple of cycles. Democrats scored some notable gains in 2018, but the map has mainly been static since then. The few chambers in play this year were in the same states where the presidential race was most contested.
Republicans took control of the Michigan House with a new 58-to-52 majority. As in Minnesota, Michigan Democrats had passed an ambitious agenda following the 2022 election, which gave them control of all the state’s political branches for the first time in 40 years.
“Obviously, it will be a block on the governor’s agenda moving forward, but there was already a slowing in the second year,” says Matt Grossmann, a political scientist at Michigan State University. “They had a hard time getting beyond repealing things that Republicans had done.”
Pennsylvania Gov. Josh Shapiro, who was passed over for the Democratic Party’s vice presidential slot, is in no better shape. Republicans are on track to erase the Democrats’ single-seat majority in the state House, although some races remain outstanding. Regardless, the GOP will retain control of the state Senate.
Scattered Democratic Victories
One state where Democrats did make gains was Arizona, where it appears they’ve forced the state Senate into a tie. Republicans will hold onto narrow control of the state House, however.
Democrats also picked up seats in Wisconsin, where this year's legislative elections were held under new maps drawn by Gov. Tony Evers and sanctioned by the state supreme court. They eroded the GOP’s sizable majority in the state Assembly, but fell far short of taking control. Democrats also gained ground in the state Senate, where half the seats were up this year, setting them up for contention in 2026.
Democrats also achieved their goal of breaking the GOP’s supermajority control of the North Carolina legislature. That will make vetoes from newly elected Democratic Gov. Josh Stein meaningful in a way they haven’t been for outgoing Democratic Gov. Roy Cooper over the past couple of years.
Democrats failed to break Republican supermajorities in Kansas, however, meaning Republicans can still routinely override vetoes from Democratic Gov. Laura Kelly. In fact, the GOP scored gains in both chambers in Kansas.
The bigger picture is that Republicans continue their dominance at the legislative level. With Democratic voters largely confined to major metropolitan areas and college towns, Republicans have more room in most states to carry favorable districts.
“A lot of states are representative of the geographic polarization in the United States,” says Grossmann, “which means Republicans have a good chance of winning and maintaining control of a lot of them.”
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