California high-speed rail is five years late, three times over budget, and nowhere close to being finished.
All the way back in 2008, voters approved a $10 billion bond package for the project, which promised to build 800 miles of rail that could deliver passengers from San Francisco to Los Angeles (about 400 miles) in two hours and 40 minutes. The line was scheduled for completion in 2020 at a total capital cost of about $33 billion.
That was five years ago. At this point, about 170 miles of railway are under construction in California’s Central Valley, while the total estimated cost has ballooned to $128 billion.
Many projects go over budget, but why is this one so far off and so far from being done? Let us count the ways: uncoordinated planning and environmental review, a rush to secure federal grants before considering construction logistics, political pressure to relocate specific segments, opposition from local communities and general inexperience with high-speed rail in the U.S. public sector.
One early change to the initial route, designed to gain the support of a Los Angeles County supervisor, ended up adding about $8 billion to the project. Another change was designed to minimize proximity to a monument to civil rights leader Cesar Chavez in response to local opposition. Better coordination between different entities could have prevented delays and cost inflation, says Eric Goldwyn, a professor at New York University who studies transit costs. Instead, Goldwyn says, “The left hand took a billion dollars out of the right hand.”
A 2018 report from the California state auditor concluded that flawed decision-making and project management bloated the cost. When it began construction in 2013, the California High-Speed Rail Authority “had not acquired sufficient land for building, had not determined how it would relocate utility systems and had not obtained agreements with external stakeholders,” the auditor found.
The runaway cost has made California high-speed rail a target for congressional Republicans and President Donald Trump, who has called it “the worst managed project I
think I’ve ever seen.” In February, Transportation Secretary Sean Duffy announced a review of the initiative, signaling that federal funding or approvals could be revoked.
“If these projects were getting done and were good projects, Trump wouldn’t have the ability to cast aspersions on them,” Goldwyn says. “It’s on transit people to do a better job and get things done on time and on budget and deliver value for money.”
