This year, visitors to Vermont, New Hampshire, Maine, Massachusetts, Connecticut, and Rhode Island (the six states that comprise New England) can expect to see the return of vibrant reds that have been dull in recent years. Foliage is also expected to arrive on a “normal” timeline in many parts of the region, with peak colors forecast for early October into Indigenous People’s Day weekend.
Looking toward the future, however, scientists warn that dull colors and delays to the season could become increasingly common. Dr. Alexandra Kosiba, a forest ecophysiologist and extension assistant professor at the University of Vermont, studies how trees in New England are adapting to a changing climate.
“There is the concern that with continued climate change, we not only have an increasingly later fall foliage season, but that it might become less vibrant,” Kosiba told the Daily Yonder.
A Changing Climate Changes Prediction
Trees have evolved to look to temperature and daylight as cues for when they should begin their fall transformation. As earlier sunsets in August and September bring cooler temperatures in the evenings, trees take note and slow their production of chlorophyll, the green pigment inside the leaves. With little chlorophyll left to dictate color, other pigments shine through, creating the fiery mix of yellow, red, and orange that sets New England forests ablaze in color.
Dr. Stephanie Spera is a professor of geography, environment and sustainability at the University of Richmond. She published research in 2023 showing how peak fall foliage in Maine’s Acadia National Park now occurs two weeks later than it did in the 1950s. By 2060, Spera projects that peak foliage could happen as late as October 30 to November 2.
Spera said predictions can be tricky because of how climate change is making New England weather more unpredictable. In addition to rising temperatures, precipitation patterns are changing in the region. Like temperature, precipitation has an impact on how bright fall foliage will be, and how long trees will hang on to their leaves before dropping them for winter. Intense rainfall events – which are becoming increasingly frequent in the region as a result of climate change – can put stress on trees. Drought conditions, meanwhile, will scorch leaves, affecting their ability to turn.
“You need a ‘Golidlocks zone’ of rain,” Spera said. “Too little rain and too much rain – bad for trees, bad for fall foliage colors.”
The Threat of Pests
Those living in New England will remember that the 2023 foliage season was less than noteworthy, partly because of a rainy summer brought by an El Niño year. The combination of rain and warming temperatures represents another threat to New England forests: pests.
Scientists worry that in the near-term, insects and fungi could do significant damage to the region’s deciduous tree species and their iconic autumn colors.
“Pests love wet and warm,” Spera said. “And that’s where we’re heading climatically.”
Last year, wet conditions led to an outbreak of leaf fungus in the region. This had devastating impacts on sugar maple trees known for their bright red colors, said Jim Salge, a longtime New England foliage expert for Yankee Magazine.
Salge said leaf fungus is just one threat to New England’s forest. He also worries about pests like the emerald ash borer, which he said is projected to wipe out 95 percent of ash trees in New England forests in the next 20-30 years. Winters that once killed off these pests are increasingly not reaching their historic low cold temperatures.
“The changing and warming climate is allowing invasive species to gain a foothold,” Salge said.
In the long-term, scientists project that pests and warming temperatures could change the composition of New England’s forests. The reach of oak trees could extend northward into territory that has traditionally belonged to sugar maples. This would change the mix of colors we see during the fall, Kosiba said. Over generations, the rising dominance of hickories and oak trees over sugar maples could lend itself to a yellow or orange-hued autumn rather than red.
Influencer Tourism
This year, scientists agree that the region is in for a show. A healthy growing season combined with what Salge calls “New England sweater weather” means the foliage should arrive on time with plenty of color.
In Vermont, the Director of the University of Vermont’s Tourism Research Center, Dr. Lisa Chase, says the state is gearing up for one of its most popular seasons. Tourists flock to Vermont from what Chase calls “the drive market,” which includes the New York City, Boston, and Montreal metropolitan areas. Once in the forest, Chase said visitors may embark on tours driving through scenic areas or otherwise take in the colors along hiking and biking trails, kayaking excursions, or from local farms and downtown shopping districts.
Last year, despite the duller-than-usual colors, a rural Vermont community found itself face-to-face with a new kind of tourist: social media influencers. With social media granting users the ability to geolocate their photos, seemingly random spots can become ultra-hot destinations overnight. This can create a burden for residents living in places that are not set up for an influx of tourists.
In the small town of Pomfret, a residential dirt road became a photo-op with little warning. Unlike Vermont’s iconic Route 9 – where seasonal leaf-peeping traffic is expected – Pomfret was not prepared for large numbers of visitors. Taking matters into their own hands, locals opted to close roads so as not to overwhelm the area with tourists.
Chase said her takeaway from the situation is that part of the joy of foliage season is exploring beautiful spots that nobody else has found yet.
“Rather than going to this specific spot where there’s going to be a whole bunch of other tourists waiting for their turn to take a photo, explore the incredible back roads of Vermont and make discoveries for yourself,” Chase said.
If you end up in New England this season, expect a display of reds, oranges, yellows, greens, and even purples. The colors are sure to attract Instagrammers and locals alike.
“It really is a celebration of a connection to the land that so many small towns and rural settings have,” Salge said. “And New England does it best.”
This article was first published by the Daily Yonder. Read the original article.
