It’s a word that may have been overused in a bizarre year.
But when it comes to the 2020 election — and all of the possible effects of the COVID-19 pandemic — political analysts agree the nation is in store for an unprecedented campaign over the 81 days leading up to Election Day.
“We have literally never seen an election like this before,” said Geoff Peterson, chairman of the political science department at UW-Eau Claire. The closest parallel, Peterson said, might be the 1918 midterm elections during the Spanish flu pandemic, but that was more than a century ago, women were unable to vote and mail-in ballots didn’t exist. “Political scientists are trying to figure out how the coronavirus will impact the election, but it truly is a unique event in American electoral history,” he said.
Part of the challenge is the volatility of the pandemic itself, as cases and deaths ebb and flow in different regions of the country, making it difficult to predict the state of the health crisis and its economic ramifications when voters begin casting ballots.
“You’ve got a campaign complicated by COVID-19, and trying to make any kind of predictions, considering we haven’t faced a situation like this in at least 100 years, is foolhardy,” said John Frank, a retired Chippewa Valley Technical College social studies instructor and former GOP congressional aide.
The results, as usual, will depend a great deal on voter turnout, UW-Stout political scientist Rich Postlewaite said, but that too carries an unrivaled level of uncertainty because concern about the potential spread of the coronavirus at crowded polling places is widely expected to lead to an extraordinarily high rate of absentee voting.
The most recent Marquette University poll, released Tuesday, showed that 35 percent of the 801 registered Wisconsin voters who responded indicated they plan to vote absentee by mail for the Nov. 3 elections, while 46 percent plan to vote in person on Election Day and 12 percent early in person. Among Democrats, the share planning to vote absentee by mail was 55 percent.
Not only does the shift toward absentee voting throw out models that attempt to predict voter turnout, but it also could change the normal timing of campaigns.
In a traditional election, candidates start slowly after the primary, try to build momentum until Election Day and then everyone votes, Frank said.
“That’s not the way it is this year,” Frank said. “A conventional campaign won’t work because half of the people may have voted already by Election Day, so you have to hit the ground running.”
With limits on the size of gatherings and public health officials advising against unnecessary contact to prevent the spread of the coronavirus, candidates likely will do no baby kissing and little, if any, pressing of the flesh.
“I think parades and rallies are going to be just too much to deal with this year,” Postlewaite said. “With universities limiting students to 19 per classroom, I can’t imagine them going along with packing 20,000 people in a stadium.”
Going Virtual
Instead, many campaigns are pivoting toward untested models that rely more than ever on virtual meetings, social media and TV, radio and newspaper ads. While the impact is unclear, Frank and Postlewaite agreed it may provide an additional advantage for incumbents who already tend to have strong name recognition.The restrictions on gatherings also may change the prevalence and nature of campaign stops, even in a battleground state like Wisconsin and a swing region such as the Chippewa Valley that typically attracts multiple visits by national candidates.
Instead of hosting festive rallies with huge crowds, candidates are more likely to hold small news conferences attended by a few supporters and members of the media, Frank predicted.
It’s also unknown, the analysts said, how mostly virtual political conventions will affect the bump in polling numbers candidates typically receive after televised nominating events filled with banners, confetti and throngs of cheering supporters.
Peterson noted that in some states voters may cast absentee ballots even before the first presidential debate between GOP President Donald Trump and Democratic challenger and former Vice President Joe Biden.
A barrage of absentee ballots also could affect the likelihood of getting results promptly after the elections.
With the possibility that absentee ballots could account for 70 percent of all votes, “it may take weeks to get the results,” Peterson said. “This is not something we’re used to. It’s going to be fascinating ... and probably frustrating.”
Things could get ugly if in-person ballots indicate one result, and absentee ballots later show another, Peterson said, adding, “I’m preparing myself for an absolute fiasco.”
The good news, he said, is that county election officials have now had several months — and trial runs in the April spring elections and this week’s primaries — to prepare for conducting an election during a pandemic with heightened safety measures and a high rate of absentee voting.
Battle for Wisconsin
In Wisconsin, the chief story line revolves around a push by Republicans to secure legislative supermajorities in the Assembly and the state Senate, giving them the ability to override any vetoes by Democratic Gov. Tony Evers and to draw up legislative district boundaries that will be in effect for the next decade.With control of the Assembly and Senate since redrawing district boundaries in 2011 after the last census, Republicans only need to flip three seats in both houses to lock in the two-thirds majorities they need to override any attempt by Evers to veto new maps.
The state Democratic Party has launched a “Save the Veto” campaign to prevent that from happening.
“Republicans have so thoroughly rigged themselves into power that Wisconsin is nearly a minority-rule state,” state Democratic Party Chairman Ben Wikler said when the campaign launched in April, citing the example of 2018 when Democratic Assembly candidates won 54 percent of the total popular vote but only 36 percent of the seats. “Save the Veto will stop (Assembly Speaker) Robin Vos and (Senate President) Scott Fitzgerald’s supermajority, ensure Democrats continue to wield the executive power that voters elected them to hold in 2018 and prevent the GOP from re-rigging the maps in the 2021 redistricting process.”
State Republican Party Chairman Andrew Hitt, however, made it clear in a statement after Tuesday’s primaries that the GOP seeks the power Democrats are trying to stop.
“We also stand ready to grow our majorities in the Wisconsin Legislature to stop Gov. Tony Evers’ staff from enacting an extreme agenda,” Hitt said. “Legislative majorities can stop Governor Evers’ power grabs and attempts to raise taxes on hard-working Wisconsin families by billions of dollars.”
Two of the targeted state Senate races are in western Wisconsin, Frank said, citing the campaigns between Democratic Sen. Patty Schachtner of Somerset and GOP Rep. Rob Stafsholt of New Richmond in the 10th District and between Republican Dan Kapanke of La Crosse and Democrat Brad Pfaff of Onalaska in the 32nd District.
Year of the Virus
With the pandemic affecting so many aspects of people’s lives and Johns Hopkins University statistics showing the United States leading the world with 5.2 million COVID-19 cases and 166,623 related deaths as of Thursday, local analysts said discussion of the virus is expected to dominate the fall campaign.“I think the Republican strategy is to do everything they can not to talk about the coronavirus because it’s happening on their watch,” Peterson said. “Every time the number of people who die or get infected is reported it’s not good news for them.”
Thus, some GOP ads so far are attempting to focus on crime and taxes — issues that have worked for Republicans in the past — to deflect attention from the pandemic, he said.
Democrats, meanwhile, have to walk a tightrope on COVID-19. While they will seek to use the issue as an example of failed leadership by Trump and the Republicans, Peterson said Democrats have to be cautious not to run solely on the message, “Vote for us because we’re not those guys.”
In addition, if Biden overpromises on COVID-19, he will be expected to solve the problem if he wins, Peterson said.
The status of the economy later in the election cycle, which may be determined in part by any potential compromise between congressional Democrats and Republicans on a new pandemic relief package, also will be crucial, according to the analysts.
“If the economy craters, nothing else matters,” Peterson said. “If they don’t come to a compromise on another COVID-19 aid package and we see millions of evictions and soaring homelessness, that will overwhelm everything else.”
Indeed, Frank said, only one aspect of this unusual election in an unparalleled year is predictable: “Every other issue is going to be clouded in some respect by COVID-19.”
©2020 the Leader-Telegram (Eau Claire, Wis.) Distributed by Tribune Content Agency, LLC.
