President Donald Trump in early April imposed a blanket 10 percent tariff on all imports, with steeper rates on countries that maintain trade surpluses with the U.S. It might sound simple, but according to economists Kevin Corinth and Stan Veuger at the American Enterprise Institute, it’s built on a fundamental miscalculation. Because the proposal would calculate tariffs imposed by other countries based on retail prices rather than actual import values, some of those rates could be overstated as much as fourfold.
Regardless of the math issues — and amid heightened uncertainty stemming from a federal trade court ruling that most of Trump’s import tariffs are illegal, which an appeals court temporarily stayed — no sector stands to lose more from tariff-driven trade wars than American agriculture. Farmers in states ranging from North Carolina to Iowa, from Illinois to California, rely on foreign markets to sell everything from soybeans and pork to almonds and dairy.
Our state of North Carolina is the nation’s second-largest pork producer and a major exporter of poultry. Both industries depend heavily on export markets — particularly in Asia, where rising middle-class populations are driving demand for high-quality animal protein. When other countries’ tariffs make U.S. pork and poultry more expensive, those buyers turn to competitors from the European Union, Canada or Brazil.
In 2024, nearly 80 percent of U.S. soybean exports went to countries that would be hit by new tariffs under Trump’s proposal. China alone purchased more than half of all U.S. soybeans at one point. But after the 2018 trade war, Chinese buyers didn’t just cut back — they signed long-term contracts with Brazil and Argentina. U.S. soybean exports were devastated, and many producers still haven’t recovered their market share.
The same fate awaits other key commodities. California’s almond growers, Washington’s apple producers and Iowa’s corn farmers all depend on stable international demand. When tariffs distort the playing field, those buyers turn to competitors in the EU, South America or Canada.
Tariffs not only reduce the price farmers can get for their goods but also raise input costs on essentials like fertilizer and machinery. The ripple effects will also hit feed suppliers, processing plants, truckers and rural equipment dealers. Many rural communities are already dealing with aging populations and shrinking workforces. The last thing they need is to become collateral damage in a trade-policy experiment gone wrong.
Some argue that federal aid can make up for these losses, and Trump has mentioned doing another round of handouts for farmers to make up for export losses, but history says otherwise. During the last trade war, the Government Accountability Office found that large agribusinesses received the lion’s share of bailout money while many small family farms got just pennies on the dollar.
You can’t undo a lost export season with a check from the U.S. Department of Agriculture. You can’t pay off equipment loans or keep your employees with one-time assistance that comes months after the fact. And you certainly can’t rebuild trust with international buyers who might start seeing the U.S. as an unreliable trading partner.
This is not protectionism — it’s economic sabotage.
Trade has been a lifeline for North Carolina agriculture for centuries. Today, from pork shipped to South Korea to chicken exports bound for Mexico and sweet potatoes heading to Europe, our farmers compete and win on the world stage. But they can’t do it when the government stacks the economic odds against them.
States need to build coalitions and call for clear, stable trade policy that supports long-term growth. American agriculture is competitive on the global stage. But it cannot thrive when the rules are constantly changing.
If the administration wants to support American farmers, it should start by correcting its flawed math, scrapping blanket tariffs and re-engaging with trading partners in good faith. Taking away farmers’ access to markets is bad economics and a slap in the face to farmers already working with thin profit margins.
American farmers don’t need tariffs. They need markets. They need stability.
Kelly Lester is a policy analyst for the Center for Food, Power and Life at the John Locke Foundation, a North Carolina-based think tank that advocates for free markets, limited constitutional government and personal responsibility.
Governing’s opinion columns reflect the views of their authors and not necessarily those of Governing’s editors or management.
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