In Brief:
- Voters face ballot measures related to crime in several states on Tuesday. Most seek to increase penalties or offer additional funding for police.
- The most prominent initiative is in California. Proposition 36 would roll back parts of a criminal justice reform measure passed by voters a decade ago, increasing penalties for drug crimes and theft.
- Even though crime has been falling for the past couple of years, voters remain concerned about public safety and appear ready to embrace tougher laws, even as critics warn this will increase incarceration but not safety.
Crime rates have come down from a pandemic-era spike, but voters in several states are considering ballot measures that promote tougher policies on crime.
Notably, a ballot initiative in California that would stiffen penalties for drug crimes and theft is likely to pass with more than two-thirds support, according to polling.
The measure is a reaction to fentanyl abuse, “an explosion” in homelessness perhaps driven partially by drug use and retail theft that “has gotten out of control,” says Greg Totten, CEO of the California District Attorneys Association, which sponsored Proposition 36.
He describes the initiative as a course correction to Proposition 47, a criminal justice reform measure passed a decade ago that lowered penalties for certain nonviolent offenses to reduce incarceration rates. “This is not a huge swing to a ‘get tough, lock ‘em up’ kind of initiative of the past,” Totten says. “This is a very modest, thoughtfully drafted movement toward the center.”
The measure has divided Democrats, drawing opposition from Gov. Gavin Newsom, who signed a package of bills designed to crack down on retail theft this summer. Legislative hopes of slowing Proposition 36’s momentum, however, have not paid off. A number of Democratic mayors, including those in San Francisco, San Diego and San Jose, have endorsed Proposition 36.
Opponents object that the measure will undo progress made through Proposition 47’s funding for mental health and substance use disorder programs that deter crime. “Proposition 36 is exploiting Californians’ valid and understandable fears that some issues have gotten worse in recent years … without actually offering real solutions,” says Insha Rahman, director of Vera Action, which supports criminal justice reform efforts.
But voters appear to be in a mood to support a measure that promises to reduce crime. On Tuesday, voters in Arizona and Colorado will also decide anti-crime measures addressing sex trafficking, parole and police funding.
Several states are also considering more progressive measures, including legalizing marijuana for recreational purposes in Florida and the Dakotas and psychedelics in Massachusetts. California and Nevada could join seven states that have voted recently to remove language from their constitutions allowing forced labor as punishment for crimes.
California’s Crime Rates
As in other states, crime spiked in California at the height of the pandemic but has since abated. Some categories of crime have continue to receive heavy media attention. Public safety continues to weigh on residents' minds.
Retail theft declined in California after the 2014 passage of Proposition 47 and continued doing so until the pandemic. But then retail theft rose dramatically through last year, ending up 11 percent higher than where it had been when Proposition 47 passed, according to the Public Policy Institute of California (PPIC). Although it’s dropped in many smaller counties, theft continues to be a notable problem in many of the most populous ones.
Shoppers often see basic goods like diapers kept in locked cabinets, Totten says, with some stores reducing their hours and inventory or even closing in response to repeated thefts. Mark Baldassare, who leads survey research for PPIC, says that many Californians don’t feel safe right now.
“It’s ultimately, at the end of the day, a local public safety issue, more than a criminal sentencing issue,” Baldassare says. Voters are saying, “‘Something needs to happen so that I'm going to feel safer in my local community.’”
Action in Other States
Next door in Arizona, Proposition 313 would sentence anyone convicted of trafficking a minor to life in prison without possibility of release. In contrast, the current approach sentences anyone trafficking a child under 15 to at least 13 years in prison for the first offense.
The measure was referred to the ballot by the Legislature, where it passed with predominantly Republican support. Opponents warn that Prop 313 won’t allow for judicial discretion, such as carving out exceptions for sex trafficking victims who are used to recruit more victims.
Arizona voters may also create a new felony called “sale of lethal fentanyl,” adding penalties for people who knowingly sell fentanyl to individuals who then suffer a fatal overdose.
In Colorado, a measure known as Proposition 128 would require those imprisoned for certain violent crimes to serve at least 85 percent of their sentences before becoming eligible for parole. (On average, convicts in Colorado are released before serving half their time.) Supporters of the measure say it would improve public safety by keeping more dangerous offenders imprisoned longer and would create more certainty about sentences. Opponents argue that allowing prisoners to earn time off for good behavior encourages rehabilitation and successful re-entry into society.
Advance Colorado, the same conservative nonprofit backing that measure, is also sponsoring Proposition 130, which calls on the Legislature to devote $350 million to help recruit, train and retain local law enforcement officers. Opponents point to the low violent crime rate and the availability of alternative public safety approaches, and worry the measure would require legislators to prioritize this hefty law enforcement funding over meeting other budget needs.
Taken as a whole, this year’s crop of mostly tough-on-crime ballot measures may signal that voters are taking a conservative turn on the issue. But the reality of these ballot questions is that voters are often facing a binary choice between tougher sentencing or the status quo.
In 2022, an effort to repeal Proposition 47 failed in the California Assembly. This year, voters are being presented with no alternative to a partial rollback measure. “If none of that is on offer, and the only thing on offer is longer sentences, more punishment, more funding for police,” says Rahman, of Vera Action, “that's the thing they will go for.”
