Democrats are also running a close race in New Hampshire, where Republican Gov. Chris Sununu is stepping down, and are in surprisingly competitive shape in Indiana. But they don't have a lot of places to go on offense. Most of the other races are in states that are solidly red. With former President Donald Trump likely to carry them by large margins, it will be tough for Democrats to overcome the GOP’s home-field advantage.
Still, there are a couple of states where Democrats believe they can chip away at the GOP’s majority among governorships. Republicans have controlled a majority of those offices since 2010.
“You see the Democratic candidates talking about kitchen-table issues and making life better for the middle class,” says Sam Newton, communications director for the Democratic Governors Association, “while the Republican candidates continue to focus on divisive and chaotic culture wars and conspiracy theories.”
Governing spoke with Newton about elections for governor as they enter the home stretch. (Yesterday, we published an interview with Sara Craig, the Republican Governors Association’s executive director.) The conversation has been edited for length and clarity.
There aren’t a ton of races this year, with only 11 races and only three incumbents running. The DGA usually talks about its primary goal being to protect incumbents, so how did your approach change this cycle with zero incumbents running on your side?
The DGA does definitely pride itself on being an incumbent protection organization, and we like to think we're pretty good at it. We've won, I believe, 26 out of 27 incumbent campaigns going back to 2016. It did create an interesting challenge this year, but what we've really focused on is heavily engaging and holding the Democratic governorships that we already have that are currently open seats. That means top battlegrounds like North Carolina and holding onto Washington and Delaware.
We’ve been working really aggressively to flip New Hampshire, which we believe is our best red-to-blue opportunity this year, and also keeping an eye on places and making investments in places where we believe we can go on offense, like Indiana, Montana and Missouri.
Let's go over some of these races. At the start of the year, it seemed like North Carolina would be the big money race and probably the most competitive. Now, Attorney General Josh Stein is comfortably ahead. The Republican candidate, Lt. Gov. Mark Robinson, was controversial before the “black Nazi” posting story got him in the national news. There were questions at one time about whether enough people would split their votes between Trump and Stein, but how did this race turn into what looks like a comfortable win for your side?
We’re really excited about the race that Attorney General Josh Stein has been running. His focus has been bringing people together, creating a stronger, safer North Carolina. He's running on plans now to cut costs for the middle class and protect freedoms, and that's a huge contrast with the division, extremism and scandals of Mark Robinson.
With Mark Robinson in particular, and how dangerous he is, it raises the stakes and makes winning this governor's race even more important. Sure, I would rather be up, and there's no doubt we have the momentum, but we need to continue to do everything we possibly can to defeat him and make sure he never comes anywhere close to being in the governor's office.
Washington was another state that looked like it might be competitive. There was some polling earlier in the year that suggested it could be, but that's no longer the case, and certainly Bob Ferguson finished well ahead in the primary. Talk about that race.
That's another race where we're not going to take anything for granted and really sprint to the finish line. And if you look back to 2012, which is the last time that there was an open race for governor, Gov. Jay Inslee did only win that race by a few points. So this is a race where we continue to be heavily engaged and doing what we can to help elect Attorney General Bob Ferguson, who's been running a really great race. He has a great record as attorney general of taking on powerful interests to help Washington families. Dave Reichert, his record is really just out of touch and too far to the right for the vast majority of people in Washington.
New Hampshire looks like your best chance to pick up a seat. But with the primary being so late in the season, there was not a lot of time to run a fall campaign. Republican former Sen. Kelly Ayotte is well known and has a good amount of money. What do you think will make the difference there?
We show that as a dead-heat race. We expect it to be very close until the finish. We're all in to flip New Hampshire from red to blue this year. I think for Kelly Ayotte, it's important to remember the last time she was on the ballot, she was rejected by voters, and this time, she's trying to remake herself, but the reality is she can't be trusted. She's trying to say that she won't change the state's abortion law, but in the Senate, she voted for a federal abortion ban. She's fully embraced Donald Trump, even though in 2016 she said she couldn't support him. Housing, like in many states, is a very big issue there, but she sits on the board of the country's largest landlord that has been caught jacking up rents.
There is a clear contrast there. Joyce Craig is someone who is a leader, who is going to focus on fixing the biggest issues facing New Hampshire, and has real plans to do that, while Kelly has proven that she can't be trusted.
Indiana has been fairly red in most elections, but your group and the RGA are both putting money in now. How has that race become more competitive than expected?
It’s definitely a race to watch. What you're seeing is voters across party lines are unhappy with the status quo — one-party rule in Indiana. Former state Superintendent [and Democratic candidate] Jennifer McCormick is a former teacher, she's a former Republican, and she's running a race focused on bringing people together, reaching out to Democrats, Republicans and independents, and talking about issues that impact everyone, like restoring abortion rights, improving education and lowering costs.
That's a big contrast with Sen. Mike Braun, who has spent the campaign defending the state's extreme abortion ban, taking the side of his very extreme conspiracy theorist running mate, and overall plans to drag the state backward, and that's why I think you've seen him losing support in his own party with a Libertarian who's also on the ballot. It’s never easy for a Democrat to win in Indiana, but it's clear that the race is getting increasingly competitive.
The other states you mentioned as possibilities for pickups are Missouri and Montana. Those are both states that Trump will win by about 20 points and their Senate races are not going great for Democrats. What is the case for optimism on your side?
In Montana, Ryan Busse is running a very aggressive grassroots campaign that we believe he can win. In particular, his focus is on addressing the incredibly high property taxes that have skyrocketed on Gov. Greg Gianforte’s watch. All Greg Gianforte has done is look out for millionaires like himself and his rich buddies, while also attacking abortion rights, public education and public lands. Ryan Busse is focusing on those issues that appeal to Montanans across party lines and across the entire state.
And then in Missouri, again, you see Crystal Quade running a campaign focused on freedom and helping the middle class and, in particular, restoring abortion rights. There's an abortion ballot amendment in Missouri. Mike Kehoe not only supports the state's abortion ban, which is one of the most extreme in the entire country, but he's refused to commit to upholding the will [of the] people if the amendment passes. So those are definitely some dynamics that we're watching in those states in the final days.
