Does Eric Adams Have Any Business Running for Re-election?: A poll appeared this week showing Andrew Cuomo well ahead in this year’s race for New York City mayor. Cuomo came in with 32 percent, which was more than 20 percentage points better than any other Democratic candidate in the large field. That may not mean much. Cuomo — who resigned in disgrace as governor four years ago — hasn’t even formally entered the race. And polls this early may be more about name recognition than enduring strength.
But there was one thing the poll made abundantly clear: Eric Adams, the incumbent mayor, has no shot at re-election. Adams won the support of just 6 percent of those polled, trailing not only Cuomo but three other candidates in a tie for fifth. “A rational, logical person evaluating the situation sees that it’s pretty much hopeless that he can run and he can win,” says Doug Muzzio, a political scientist at Baruch College.
Adams is under indictment on bribery and campaign finance charges. A long list of former deputy mayors, top aides and other officials have stepped down due to various federal corruption probes. Adams has denied any wrongdoing but polls indicate that far more New Yorkers believe he did something illegal or unethical than approve of his job performance.
There are plenty of politicians who face legal peril and then hold on to power as long as possible. Sometimes that makes sense. The act of resigning itself can become a bargaining chip in negotiations with prosecutors.
But it’s not clear why Adams believes he can win another term. He’s maintained some support with Black constituents, but generally his favorability ratings have been higher with Republicans than Democrats. Adams, a former Republican, has been shifting right lately on some issues such as immigration. Winning over GOP support won’t help him in the key Democratic primary, however.
As things stand, Adams faces a trial set to begin in April, just a couple of months ahead of the primary. Not many politicians benefit from being on trial at the height of campaign season.
“The campaign finance board has cut off all the matching funds,” Muzzio says. “His inner circle has been decimated with corruption indictments. He has been indicted. What is he holding on to?”
(Leila Navidi / The Minnesota Star Tribune)
Here's how things reached this point: In November’s elections, the Democratic-Farmer-Labor Party lost its House majority, with Republicans pulling into a tie. The tie didn’t last long because it turned out that Democrat Curtis Johnson, who’d won a House seat, hadn’t established residency in the right district.
Republicans were eager to get the session started while they command a one-seat majority and could elect a speaker who would remain in power for the rest of the session. Democrats weren’t having it. They held their own swearing-in on Sunday (Republicans say this won’t stand) and then refused to show up for the official opening.
In Minnesota, the secretary of state presides over the opening of the House. Steve Simon, the Democrat who holds that position, ruled that the House lacked a quorum and called for adjournment. Republican House members decided he was wrong and installed Lisa Demuth as speaker. Both Simon and House Democrats filed petitions with the state Supreme Court Wednesday, claiming Republicans broke the law by proceeding without a quorum. The court will hear oral arguments on Jan. 23.
"What the Republicans did in the Minnesota House chamber today is absolutely stunning," Democratic leader Melissa Hortman told NPR News. The GOP, she said, “clearly lost on quorum, and they just couldn't handle it. So they had to have a fake House of Representatives.”
Hortman says Democrats will keep boycotting proceedings. The House presumably will be tied again after Jan. 28, when a special election will fill Johnson’s seat. But Republicans are suing to block that, too, saying Democratic Gov. Tim Walz violated state law by calling the election prematurely.
Tied chambers used to be fairly common and forced bipartisan cooperation out of necessity. That’s obviously not happening in St. Paul, where the two parties can’t even agree on whether their chamber should be in session.
“We’re already starting off at a bad place and it can’t really get any better,” says David Schultz, a political scientist at Hamline University. “We had, even before this, an absolutely horrible record in terms of bipartisanship in this state. This is not boding at all well.”
(Emily Curiel/The Kansas City Star/TNS)
But there will be 36 elections for governor next year. About half of them will be open contests due to term limits. That means lots of people will be running and serious contenders are already starting to shift from “exploring” to announcing.
Aric Nesbitt, the GOP leader in the Michigan Senate, announced on Tuesday he’s running to succeed term-limited Democrat Gretchen Whitmer. Gentner Drummond, the Republican attorney general in Oklahoma, got into the race there on Monday. GOP incumbent Kevin Stitt is term-limited. Amy Acton, who served as Ohio’s health director in the early days of the pandemic, is running as a Democrat to succeed term-limited Republican Mike DeWine.
The state that looks most likely at this early stage to change hands next year is Kansas. Incumbent Democrat Laura Kelly can’t run again in the otherwise Republican-dominated state. Last week, Republican Secretary of State Scott Schwab became the first official candidate in next year’s race.
He won’t be the last. In most states, the action will be in the primaries, with one party or the other having a clear shot at success. But whether the election is effectively decided in a primary or in November, the chance to run for an open governorship comes along in most states only once every eight years. That’s why top-tier candidates are making their intentions known so early.
