Indiana's Surprisingly Close Governor's Race

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Indiana’s Surprisingly Close Governor’s Race: Running mates matter even less in state elections than they do in presidential campaigns. Nevertheless, the nominees for lieutenant governor in Indiana shed some light on why Republicans are not running away with this year’s race for governor.

U.S. Sen. Mike Braun did not get state Rep. Julie McGuire, the running mate he preferred, from the Indiana GOP convention in June, even though she received late backing from former President Donald Trump. Instead, delegates to the convention, who had the final say in the matter, nominated Micah Beckwith, a pastor and podcast host who is a self-described Christian nationalist. Braun clearly wasn’t happy: “My running mate can say whatever he wants,” he said. “If it doesn’t make sense or it doesn’t resonate, remember, I’m going to be the governor.”

By contrast, Democratic nominee Jennifer McCormick, a former state schools superintendent, picked as her running mate Terry Goodin, who served for 20 years in the state House before becoming a Rural Development official with USDA. McCormick — herself a former Republican — wanted a running mate who speaks the language of rural precincts that supported Democrats in the not-too-distant past. “McCormick is really making a play to rebuild the Democratic coalition that used to spread from the big cities to the rural corners,” says Robert Dion, a political scientist at the University of Evansville.

Maybe that won’t work. McCormick has made abortion the centerpiece of her campaign, while Goodin has recanted conservative stances he once held regarding abortion and gay rights. But McCormick is attempting to be strategic about expanding the universe of voters who might vote for her, even with Trump certain to carry the state.

Braun, by contrast, has been running a low-energy campaign. He came practically out of nowhere as a wealthy truck manufacturer six years ago to defeat two sitting House members in the GOP Senate primary. This time around, he won the primary easily, but with less than 40 percent of the vote. Democrats haven’t won an election for governor in Indiana since 1996. Braun perhaps felt he could take the race for granted, failing to mend fences within the party after the primary or lend sufficient support to McGuire to secure her the second spot.

The result has been weak poll numbers for Braun, with his lead generally in the single digits and his support south of the 50 percent mark. Political observers such as Dion are still convinced that Braun will win, although maybe with an unconvincing margin by contemporary Indiana GOP standards. But proof that this race is not in the bag is shown by late spending from both the Democratic and Republican governors associations: $600,000 from the DGA and $1 million from the RGA.

Oakland May Recall Its Mayor and DA: It appears highly likely that California voters are about to demand tougher tactics against crime.

A proposition to increase penalties for drug crimes and retail theft is on its way to an easy victory, according to polls. The measure would partially roll back an initiative approved by California voters a decade ago that reduced sentences in an effort to decrease incarceration rates. Polls in the Los Angeles district attorney’s race also indicate that incumbent George Gascón, considered one of the most progressive prosecutors in the country, will lose handily to James Hochman, a former federal prosecutor.

Recall attempts against Gascón failed to collect enough signatures. That’s not the case in Alameda County, which includes Oakland. Pamela Price, another progressive prosecutor, faces a Nov. 5 recall. Spending by her opponents has dwarfed the amount Price has been able to raise in her own defense. “Recalls are a hammer that are typically used when there’s a scandal or malfeasance in office, something like that,” says David McCuan, a political scientist at Sonoma State University. “But what we're seeing is kind of a backlash — part of an anti-establishment, anti-criminal justice reform backlash.”

Two years ago, across the bay, San Francisco District Attorney Chesa Boudin was recalled by voters upset about rising crime. (In California’s major cities, as is generally the case across the country, homicides and violent crime rates have come down since their pandemic peaks.) More pertinently, perhaps, Oakland Mayor Sheng Thao faces a recall election next month, largely funded by hedge fund financier Philip Dreyfuss.

Dreyfuss is also a major backer of the recall effort against Price. Thao’s opponents complain she’s weakened public safety and complain about financial mismanagement. Thao is also campaigning under the shadow of an FBI raid of her home back in June, although it’s still not clear what agents were looking for or what they may have found.

“Oakland has struggled with strong executive leadership, and part of that has revolved around the issue of crime, where there's been a revolving door of executive leadership within the Oakland Police Department itself,” McCuan says. “And then you see things like the loss of the Oakland Raiders and the Oakland A's. All of that is a lot on the shoulders of Mayor Thao.”

Republican Registration Advantage: With less than a month to go before the election, it’s certainly notable that more Americans are identifying or registering as Republicans.

Recent polls from both NBC News and Gallup have found more Americans identifying with the GOP than with the Democrats in pre-election polls for the first time in more than 30 years.

In Pennsylvania, arguably the true keystone state of this presidential election, more citizens are registered as Democrats, but the party has its weakest advantage in that regard since at least 1998. The Democratic advantage has also declined in Nevada and North Carolina, while the GOP has substantially expanded its edge in Arizona.

In red states such as Kentucky and Louisiana, Democrats have been losing their ancestral registrants. But even in California, Republicans are making gains. More voters have registered with the GOP since 2022, while Democrats have seen losses — notably among core supporters such as Black, Latino and young voters.