Legislatures in Play Amid Presidential Campaign Chaos

Editor's Note: This article is a part of Governing's Inside Politics newsletter. Sign up here.

Legislatures in Play Amid Presidential Campaign Chaos: The attempted assassination of Donald Trump was a shameful event that momentarily froze political conversation. But it was only one episode in a week of political turmoil that included Trump’s own presidential nomination, his selection of JD Vance as his running mate, President Biden’s withdrawal on the Democratic side and the emergence of Vice President Kamala Harris as the presumptive Democratic nominee.

It’s logical to suppose that all this tumult will change the overall dynamic of the November election, at the lower levels of the political universe as well as the highest ones. But with all of the events crowded together in a short space of time, the consequences are almost impossible to predict. “Ideally these big events would be spaced out a month at a time, so you could see the impact,” says Berwood Yost, a pollster at Franklin & Marshall College in Pennsylvania. But that didn’t happen.

Pennsylvania is a good example of the uncertainty. It’s one of just a few states, along with Michigan, Minnesota and Wisconsin, where partisan control of the legislature is in play. Democrats currently control the Pennsylvania House of Representatives even though they have been in a numerical minority of 100-101 since two members resigned. They’re expected to regain those seats in special elections later this summer, before the general election in the fall. The state Senate is expected to remain under Republican control.

Through a series of resignations, Democrats have held onto control of the Pennsylvania House, which they gained in 2022 for the first time in over a decade. The outcome of the presidential election could help determine whether the House stays Democratic or swings back to the Republicans. Republicans won both chambers and most other statewide offices in 2020, the last time Trump was on the ticket, even though Biden carried the state by a narrow margin. Recent polls showed Biden trailing Trump in Pennsylvania, long considered a critical swing state. “It’s clear that Biden was heading in a direction where there was going to be some fallout down the ballot,” Yost says.

It’s not clear yet whether Harris will turn out those voters either. But she has new momentum in fundraising and on social media that was flagging in the late days of the Biden campaign. Her choice of vice president could influence some votes as well. Harris is reportedly considering Pennsylvania Gov. Josh Shapiro as a contender, along with a handful of other governors. Shapiro is popular in Pennsylvania and selecting him as VP could theoretically help Harris carry the state. But Trump has strong support in the state as well, and was recently polling ahead of both Biden and Harris in Pennsylvania. State and local candidates in Pennsylvania and other swing states will be fighting their own battles — but hoping for help from their party’s presidential candidate.

Similar factors are at play all over the country. The presidential campaigns could affect everything from partisan control of state legislatures to the fate of local ballot initiatives. Robert Stein, a political scientist at Rice University, says that the Houston Independent School District is considering floating a multibillion-dollar bond to fund capital projects and repairs to aging schools on the ballot this fall. Its chances of passage could be affected by the top of the ticket.

“There’s a great concern that if Biden were on the top of the ticket, many young voters and Black and Hispanic voters might not show up,” Stein says. “Nobody knows if that’s true or not, but there was concern.”

New Jersey Loses a Senator: New Jersey has a new name to add to its political wall of infamy. U.S. Sen. Bob Menendez, one of the longest-serving Senate Democrats currently in office, will resign next month after being convicted of bribery and corruption. Among other charges, prosecutors said Menendez accepted bribes, including cash and gold bars, on behalf of the Egyptian government. Menendez has vowed to appeal. But, facing pressure to resign from fellow Democrats and a potential vote to expel him from office, he said he did “not want the Senate to be involved in a lengthy process that will detract from its important work.”

In simpler times, the conviction and resignation of a senior U.S. senator would lead the news cycle and cause headaches for fellow party members up and down the ballot. In the current environment, the Menendez story is barely front-page news. And its impact on other state and local races this year is likely to be small.

That’s partly because New Jersey is a solidly blue state, and partly because corruption is already part of its political DNA. In New Jersey, candidates often insinuate that their opponents are corrupt, or define themselves as reformers in opposition to the state’s sullied political brand. Another conviction, even for one of the state’s top leaders, won’t radically alter the dynamic.

“One case by itself probably doesn’t tarnish the party brand much, nor does there seem to be much ‘air’ for the Menendez case to impact the public mood at the margin, given all the political chaos we are going through this year,” says University of Missouri political scientist Jeff Milyo.

Of course, the Menendez trial has factored into the already hotly contested race to replace him. Andy Kim, a Democratic U.S. Representative who is running for the Senate seat held by Menendez, sued to abolish the use of the so-called “party line” — the unusual practice of grouping party-backed candidates together on state ballots, giving them an advantage. Kim, who has styled himself as a reformer, won the Democratic nomination last month after Tammy Murphy, the wife of New Jersey Gov. Phil Murphy, dropped out. Murphy had initially consolidated party support for her nomination before Kim sued to block the use of the party line.

But the Menendez case doesn’t seem to be ushering in a wave of insurgent reformers across the state. Menendez’s son, U.S. Rep. Robert Menendez Jr., comfortably fended off a Democratic challenger, and is expected to win in the general election in the fall. “If any electorate can shrug its shoulders at corruption,” says political scientist Milyo, “it would be New Jersey.”

Total Recall in the Bay Area: Oakland Mayor Sheng Thao could be voted out of office before she finishes even half of her first term.

Thao, a progressive Democrat who previously served one term on the Oakland City Council, won the 2022 mayoral election in a ranked-choice contest by 667 votes. She’s had a rocky tenure so far. A ransomware attack in the first months of her mayoralty led to the release of public employees’ data and temporarily shut down city systems. She fired a popular police chief after a report that he had mishandled police misconduct cases, sparking a backlash from local Black leaders. The city missed the deadline to apply for a federal grant to combat retail theft amid a spike in fears about public safety citywide. And last month, the FBI staged an early-morning raid on Thao’s home in connection with a still-murky investigation involving a waste collection company owned by a family of political donors.

But a recall effort that was recently approved for the November ballot has as much to do with the shifting politics of the Bay Area as it does any particular misstep of the mayor. The COVID-19 pandemic led to population losses in the region and contributed to a broad sense of unsafety, even as actual crimes are now on the downswing in Oakland. The recall is being organized by a former Alameda County judge, Brenda Harbin-Forte, whom Thao removed from the city’s Police Commission last year. Harbin-Forte has framed the recall as a referendum on public safety, saying Thao “has blood on her hands.”

Recall elections have always been a feature of California politics, but recent high-profile efforts have led to a sense in some circles, especially progressive ones, that they’re being abused. California Gov. Gavin Newsom fought off a recall in 2021, but may face another one before his term is up in 2026. Former San Francisco District Attorney Chesa Boudin took office on a pledge to implement progressive criminal justice reforms, but served for just 18 months before being recalled. Alameda County District Attorney Pamela Price is also facing a recall election in November — the first time Oakland’s mayor and the county DA have faced simultaneous recall efforts.

Progressives aren’t the only targets of recalls, however. Conservative school board members are increasingly facing recall efforts in the Bay Area and around the state, often related to anti-LGBT policies and rhetoric.

Jim Ross, a political consultant who worked with Boudin during the recall, says officials are increasingly facing well-funded recall efforts almost as soon as they take office. It isn’t hard to gather enough signatures to stage a recall in California, even for a relatively popular politician. “It’s a mechanical process. It’s not a messaging or a persuasive process,” Ross says. “If you have enough time and enough money in California you can put anything on the ballot, including a recall.”

A study published in the Santa Clara Law Review suggests that “the view of California’s recall as a force gone amok is incorrect.” The authors analyzed local recall elections held from 2011 to 2021. They found that local recall efforts are more common and more likely to be successful than statewide ones. While most recalls fail to qualify for the ballot, local recall elections that do make the ballot usually succeed. More than 60 percent of qualifying local recall campaigns were successful during the last decade, according to the study.

One reason local recall elections are more difficult to win is because the officials who are up for a vote often don’t have the chance to focus their defense against a single challenger. In the 2021 statewide recall, Newsom was able to win partly because he faced a specific Republican opponent whose weaknesses he could describe. But in San Francisco, Boudin was facing a simple up-or-down vote at a politically perilous time. If Boudin had been on the ballot opposite the DA who eventually replaced him, Brooke Jenkins, Ross says he “would have won going away.”

Still, the track record of local recall elections suggests both Price and Thao face long odds in their efforts to keep their positions. Thao’s political challenges make it even harder. “For Sheng Thao, before the FBI raid, there was a path to defeating the recall,” Ross says. “I think the FBI raid adds a new layer to that that makes it very difficult.”