Yet with that said, economic divides also remained stark, as illustrated by a new Brookings analysis of counties’ 2024 presidential vote sorted by their economic output, as measured by local gross domestic product (GDP). According to the analysis, the U.S. economy remains starkly divided—albeit with some noticeable local shifts. Most strikingly, lower-output, small town, and rural areas continue to vote much differently—and more Republican—than the nation’s higher-output urban areas. These areas now comprise the foundation of the nation’s ruling party, joined by numerous new Republican-leaning places in the Sun Belt and elsewhere.
To provide some context, let’s look at how the cleavage between red and blue communities has been evolving since the first Trump era.
In 2016, Brookings research reported that the 2,584 mostly small town and rural counties that powered Trump into the presidency generated just 36 percent of the country’s GDP, meaning red America would govern the U.S. economy as an economic minority. A similar analysis of the 2020 vote showed an even sharper economic divide, with Trump’s now-losing base in 2,564 counties representing just 29 percent of the GDP, compared to the 71 percent share in the 520 mostly urban counties won by President Joe Biden.
Now, in 2024, the story of red America’s minority status as an economic power continues unabated, albeit with unmistakable gains. This year, Brookings calculations suggest that President-elect Donald Trump’s winning base in 2,523 counties represents 87 percent of the nation’s total counties but just 40 percent of the nation’s GDP. Conversely, Vice President Kamala Harris’ losing base of 376 much higher-output counties represents 60 percent of the GDP.
Yet there are also new developments in the wake of Trump’s 2024 victory. Most notably, this year’s red wave challenges the boundaries of the nation’s economic divides and has expanded the Republican economic base for the moment.
Specifically, 81 of the 82 counties that shifted their party allegiance in 2024 shifted from blue to red, enlarging Trump’s base. What’s more, a number of these newly red counties are large (rather than peripheral) additions. For example, the number of Trump-voting areas among the largest 100 counties by GDP share increased from five to 17.
In short, Donald Trump—in addition to capturing more small town and rural areas—expanded his base by winning larger and more dynamic counties such as Maricopa County, Ariz., (home to Phoenix); Orange County, Calif.; Miami-Dade County, Fla.; Tarrant County, Texas (home to Dallas); Duval County, Fla. (home to Jacksonville); and Pinellas County, Fla. (home to Tampa and St. Petersburg).
These patterns matter because the nation’s sharp economic divides—just like its cultural ones—presage even more clashes between the parties about how best to generate inclusive growth for the American economy.
After all, red America and blue America encompass strikingly different segments of the economy, with very different needs and priorities. As we wrote in 2020: “Democrats represent voters who overwhelmingly reside in the nation’s diverse economic centers…Jobs in blue America disproportionately rely on R&D investment, technology leadership, and service exports. By contrast, Republicans represent an economic base situated in the nation’s struggling small towns and rural areas. Prosperity there remains out of reach for many, and the party sees no reason to consider the priorities and needs of the nation’s metropolitan centers.”
In sum, then, the nation’s stark economic divides—particularly in their latest iteration—do not look like a scenario for economic progress. Instead, they look like a recipe for new levels of mistrust, conflict, and underachievement. Rural and small town leaders as well as urban leaders on the ground in both red and blue America are going to need to work hard to secure their mutual well-being in the coming years.
This article was first published by Brookings. Read the original article.
