The Most — Maybe the Only — Competitive Governor’s Race in the Nation

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The Most — Maybe the Only — Competitive Governor’s Race in the Nation: How far can Republican politicians distance themselves from former President Donald Trump and still achieve success? Across the country, the answer is basically not much, but things are playing out a little bit differently in New England.

Vermont GOP Gov. Phil Scott, who has made it abundantly clear he’s no Trump fan, is on his way to yet another landslide re-election in one of the nation’s bluest states. Next door in New Hampshire, Republican Gov. Chris Sununu backed Nikki Haley against Trump in the state’s first-in-the-nation primary (for Republicans) and has maintained strong approval ratings. But it’s not yet certain that Sununu’s preferred candidate to succeed him, Kelly Ayotte, will have the same luck.

Ayotte represented New Hampshire in the U.S. Senate for a single term but narrowly lost her seat in 2016, even as Sununu won the first of his victories. Ayotte had sought to keep her distance from Trump, saying she would vote for him that year but not officially endorse him. She ultimately declared she would write in Mike Pence’s name after a videotape emerged late in the campaign that showed Trump boasting about sexual assault. “I cannot and will not support a candidate for president who brags about degrading and assaulting women,” Ayotte said.

She’s changed her tune this year. Back in April, she called Trump “the right choice” for the job. She also stated that she no longer supports a pathway to citizenship for immigrants in the country illegally, which was an aspect of a bill she cosponsored in 2013.

But there are plenty of Trump voters with long memories on both counts, says David Carney, a consultant to Chuck Morse, a former state Senate president and Ayotte’s challenger in Tuesday’s Republican primary. “Trump is her Achilles’ heel,” Carney says.

Ayotte has a massive lead in public polls — in the 30 or 40 percentage point range. Carney concedes Morse faces an uphill climb but argues that voters are mostly just starting to tune into the post-Labor Day primary. “Her support is 100 percent name ID-driven. It’s a mile wide and an inch deep,” Carney suggests.

Andrew Smith is a pollster at the University of New Hampshire who put out a survey last month showing Ayotte holding a 65 percent to 21 percent lead over Morse. Smith says he found that half the Republicans questioned either didn’t know Morse or know enough about him to form an opinion. There may not be enough time left for Morse to present himself as a viable alternative. Assuming Ayotte prevails, she will start off as the favorite against the Democrat — either Executive Councilor Cinde Warmington or former Manchester Mayor Joyce Craig.

“Ayotte’s certainly far better known than any of the other candidates,” Smith says. “In New Hampshire, as in other states, Trump has had a big influence, but there’s still a large number of old, traditional, New Hampshire Republicans in New Hampshire, as shown by the success Nikki Haley had here.”

Still, there’s a chance that Ayotte’s past criticism of Trump could end up hurting her more in November than it does in the primary. There may be enough Republicans who cast a vote for Trump but skip over the Senate race to cost her victory in a close contest. Trump himself looks likely to lose New Hampshire narrowly, once again, making conditions at least moderately favorable for other Democrats.

Trump loyalists and voters concerned with border security are the two most animated blocs in GOP politics this year. Ayotte will have a few short weeks to bring them home, which is why New Hampshire has what is shaping up to be this year’s most competitive race.

Why Other Elections for Governor Aren’t Competitive: There are only 11 governor’s races this year but most of them are shaping up as duds. Even though just three incumbents are running, nearly every race has been decided in the primary. Races that once looked competitive, in states such as North Carolina and Washington, don’t look at all tight at this point.

It wasn’t always this way. In past presidential cycles, there were red states where Democrats had a shot, with the opposite being true for blue-state Republicans. There will still be some ticket-splitting, as evidenced by Phil Scott in Vermont. Democrat Josh Stein holds a comfortable polling lead in North Carolina, even as Trump remains on track to win there. But there’s not as much ticket-splitting as there used to be, even in the recent past.

“In 2012, 2016 and 2020, there was at least some drama with Indiana, Missouri and Montana,” says Kyle Kondik, managing editor of Sabato’s Crystal Ball, a political site sponsored by the University of Virginia. “They’re very red states at the presidential level, but the Democrats in all three of those states were more competitive down the ballot than they are now.”

Not only is GOP Gov. Greg Gianforte looking like a lock in Montana, but it’s increasingly likely that Democrats will lose a crucial U.S. Senate seat there. That would leave Montana without a single statewide elected Democrat — and would mark the first time the state isn’t sending a Democrat to the Senate since direct elections began more than a century ago.

Maybe it’s no surprise that Democrats can’t win in states that Trump will carry by 20 percentage points or more. But, in contrast to voting for Congress and even legislatures, voters in the past have been able to separate federal from state issues when it comes to the high-profile elections for governor.

That may still happen in midterms. In presidential cycles, Kondik suggests, the “intense nationalization of politics” is making elections for governor much more predictable affairs. “The federal voting patterns, particularly in the Trump era, have just bled down the ballot,” he says.