What If Voters Aren’t as Polarized as We Think?

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What If Voters Aren’t as Polarized as We Think?: In recent years, ballot initiatives have primarily been a tool of the left. Voters in multiple states have approved measures to increase the minimum wage, legalize marijuana and expand Medicaid. This year, abortion rights measures will probably pass in a majority of the 10 states where they’re on the ballot, if not in all 10.

All of these measures have met with success in red states as well as blue. “We continue with this fascinating state that I think in a week will support reproductive rights for women in Missouri, but will also elect people who do not,” said Kansas City Mayor Quinton Lucas, a Democrat.

But this year, there’s a possible counter-trend. Polls suggest that California voters will not only pass a crime measure that would stiffen penalties for retail theft and drug crimes, but pass it with overwhelming support. They also look likely to reject measures that would allow local governments to impose rent control and raise the minimum wage from $16 to $18 per hour. Meanwhile, Democrats appear certain to carry the state handily in presidential and U.S. Senate voting.

Some of this has to do with the quirks of the California initiative system, says Craig Burnett, a political scientist at Hofstra University who studies ballot measures. California offers a relatively straightforward process for getting questions onto the ballot, while its active initiative industry is capable of generating plenty of money for propositions from both sides of the aisle. If the tougher-on-crime measure passes, it would not be the first time California voters supported a seemingly conservative approach at the same time it was electing mostly Democrats.

But why is that? Why do voters act one way when it comes to particular issue questions and a different way when it comes to choosing candidates?

A series of national surveys conducted by YouGov found that voters are more likely to support Vice President Kamala Harris’ stands on the issues. Nearly 90 percent of Harris’ policies are supported by more than half of voters, compared with 48 percent of former President Donald Trump’s. Yet polls show the presidential race as tied.

All kinds of explanations suggest themselves. Voters may not be well informed about a candidate’s actual positions. One or two issues might be deal-breakers for them, even if they agree with a candidate on a host of other things. When it comes to voting for most offices, especially for president, voters will take into account intangible qualities such as character and personality. There’s not a ton of ticket-splitting these days, but Trump is leading narrowly in polls in both Arizona and North Carolina, even as his seeming acolytes are trailing badly in the U.S. Senate and gubernatorial contests in those respective states.

The tribal sense of identity that has cordoned most voters into the Republican or Democratic camps doesn’t mean they don’t hold a mix of views when it comes to certain issues. The past couple of years have demonstrated that there are Republicans who support abortion rights, while crime is an issue that cuts across party lines, with multiple Democratic mayors backing the California measure.

“There’s a big narrative out there that we’re very polarized, and we are,” Burnett says. “But if you drill down and look at the things people actually care about, we’re not as polarized as we think. Voters have conflicting thoughts and opinions.”

Fired Prosecutors Try to Make a Comeback: Florida has been one of the leading pre-emption states over the past decade or so, passing numerous state laws that prevent cities and counties from charting their own courses on a variety of issues. Republican Gov. Ron DeSantis has taken this approach — that all local politics can be overridden — to a higher level over the past couple of years by removing a pair of elected prosecutors from office.

DeSantis claimed they weren’t doing their jobs, refusing to enforce all the laws or being too soft on crime. Now, both prosecutors are seeking their old jobs back in next week’s elections — Andrew Warren in Hillsborough County, which includes Tampa, and Monique Worrell in the circuit that includes Orange and Osceola counties. Although Democrats remain outraged that DeSantis removed elected officials from their posts, Republicans have been largely supportive of his move. 

Of the two, Worrell appears to be in better shape. She’s raised twice as much money as Andrew Bain, her DeSantis-appointed replacement. But Bain, who is running as an independent, may benefit from a curious move on the Republican side. Seth Hyman, who won the GOP nomination in August, dropped out of the race a few weeks later. The losing candidate in the primary filed suit, alleging a conspiracy that this was a setup to boost Bain’s chances. Still, the Democrats’ sizable registration advantage in the circuit should be enough to propel Worrell to victory, assuming most of the vote splits along party lines.

In January, a federal appellate court found that DeSantis violated Warren’s First Amendment rights in removing him from office. The court did not order him reinstated, however. He’ll have to earn his job back at the ballot box, running against Republican Suzy Lopez, the DeSantis appointee. His path is a little trickier than Worrell’s. In Hillsborough, as in Florida as a whole, Republicans have been gaining in registration. The Democratic edge there is down to about 5,000, out of nearly 1 million total registered voters.

Warren could still win — as he has twice before. Democratic turnout collapsed in Florida in 2022, but it’s unlikely to be as bad this year, with an abortion rights measure on the statewide ballot. Still, he doesn’t have much of a cushion in registration figures.

And the reality is, even if both Worrell and Warren win back their old jobs, there will be nothing preventing DeSantis from suspending them again.