The latest economic forecasts released Wednesday indicate the state will exceed its constitutional limit on tax collections by between $70 million and $220 million this fiscal year, triggering refunds under the Taxpayer's Bill of Rights.
How much taxpayers will see when they file their 2015 taxes in April 2016 remains unclear, but the amount is expected to be modest.
The refunds will range from $15 to $89 per taxpayer based on income level, with the lowest-income earners possibly receiving an additional $230 break.
Thanks to the state's continued economic resurgence, the early projections show refunds should continue for the next three years, unless lawmakers request voter approval to spend the money or approve other tax breaks to offset the extra revenue.
For months, economic forecasts suggested the prospect of refunds, but the March report serves as the definitive voice. The latest forecasts will determine the amount lawmakers can spend in the state budget and for other major legislation.
The refunds may come as welcome news for taxpayers, but it makes it more difficult for Colorado lawmakers to meet spending needs in priority areas, such as education, transportation and health care. At the same time, the potential for TABOR refunds is likely to energize talks about whether to ask voters through a ballot initiative to allow the state to keep the money.
"When new revenue comes in because the state is doing better — regardless of whether or not some of us feel that could be used for services — we are obligated to give that back," said Rep. Lois Court, D-Denver. "So basically we are in a net."
