Some Ways Mass Deportation Could Impact State Economies

There are about 11 million undocumented immigrants living in the United States. Three-fourths of those are from countries in Latin America, and many hold jobs in sectors essential to the basic needs of American citizens. If millions really are deported, the impact on local economies and communities could be significant.

In the first month of the Trump administration, the rate of deportations was two-thirds the monthly average during the last year of the Biden administration. The acting director of Immigration and Customs Enforcement (ICE) was removed as a consequence.

Arrests have increased recently, but the logistics of deporting large numbers of people are complicated. Thomas D. Homan, the president’s “border czar,” recently said he could not predict how many people would be deported this year.

The pressure on ICE, Congress, Homeland Security and the military will continue to increase, as will lawsuitschallenging the policies they are enforcing. Whether “millions and millions” of undocumented immigrants will be escorted out of the country remains to be seen. If it does, state economies are likely to take a hit.

Shrinking Resources

There is no fixed number of jobs in the American economy, says David Kallick, director of the Immigration Research Initiative. Deporting large numbers of people will shrink the economy.

Even today, employers are having a hard time finding workers to fill open positions. “If you take millions of workers away and put them in detention, or send them to other countries, some U.S.-born workers might get jobs in their place, but many of those businesses will wind up shrinking,” Kallick says.

Beyond this, moving large numbers of immigrants from a community can make it necessary for others to leave the workforce to assume caregiver roles for family members.

Governments will also lose resources. In 2022, undocumented workers paid $97 billion in federal, state and local taxes, including payments to programs such as Social Security and Medicare from which they receive no benefits. (The Institute on Taxation and Economic Policy estimates that giving undocumented immigrants access to work authorization could increase their tax contributions by $40 billion per year.)

Where Do Latinos Work?

California has the largest number of undocumented Latino residents, but 25 states have a higher percentage of Latino residents who are undocumented. (See map.) Some of these states are home to industries with jobs held by significant numbers of Latinos, particularly in the Southeast.

The poultry and meat packing industries employ large numbers of Latino workers, says Jie Zong, senior research analyst at the Latino Policy and Politics Institute (LPPI). They hold a third or more of all such jobs, according to data compiled by LPPI.

Tennessee has the largest percentage of undocumented persons in its Latino population of any state. A 2018 ICE raid on a meat processing plant there led to a successful class-action lawsuit from 100 immigrants who claimed they had been profiled and handled with excessive force during “The Great American Steak Out.”

Nebraska, one of the nation’s top meat producers, already has only four workers for every 10 jobs. Al Juhnke, who leads the Nebraska Pork Producers Association, has said that farmers are calling him suggesting that all immigrants, legal or illegal, be invited to come to Nebraska.

Latinos hold more than half of all jobs in specialized construction trades such as plastering, roofing and painting, nearly 70 percent in some cases (see chart). A majority (54 percent) of foreign-born construction workers are undocumented. According to the Urban Institute, Texas and California are at greatest risk of construction labor shortages as a result of mass deportation, but the impact is hardly limited to them.

Forty percent of the agricultural workforce is undocumented; the risks to this sector are perhaps the most widely recognized. Farmworkers in California’s Central Valley are afraid to come to work — the threat of deportation alone has affected the citrus harvest.

A high percentage of health aides are Latino, says Zong. They are a big part of the workforce in other professions that contribute to general quality of life, such as landscaping, laundry and dry-cleaning, housekeeping and food preparation and service.

Chilling Effects

In February, the Department of Homeland Security launched an ad campaign warning undocumented residents to self-deport. “If you are here illegally, we will find you and deport you,” Homeland Security Secretary Kristi Noem says. “You will never return.”

Advocates of mass deportation have their own economic concerns, arguing that local governments bear billions in costs for shelter, medical care, education and welfare for those who enter the country illegally. A January poll by the Associated Press found that more adults (almost half) support deporting undocumented than not. But the majority did not favor this if it meant separating them from children who are citizens.

People at risk of deportation are often members of families with mixed status, Kallick says. They may be married to U.S. citizens or have children who are citizens. The chilling effect on the workforce is likely to go beyond those immediately at risk for deportation, he says. This is exacerbated by shifting criteria regarding who may be targeted. The criteria are continuously broadening, encompassing those with working papers, asylum seekers and others who previously believed they were safe.

“Almost all economists will tell you there’s a clear benefit to having immigrants come to the U.S. to work,” Kallick says. “I think there’s an even bigger negative impact from ripping people away from existing jobs, their families and communities.”